The article will analyze the basis and the implications of Mukesh Ambani’s prediction, and will also compare and contrast it with Gautam Adani’s projection.
Mukesh Ambani, the chairman of Reliance Industries and the richest person in India, has expressed his confidence and optimism about the future of the Indian economy, saying that it will grow 13-fold from its current size to become a $40 trillion economy by 2047.
Ambani made this prediction at the 10th convocation of Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) on Tuesday, where he also highlighted the three game-changing revolutions that will drive India’s growth in the coming decades: the clean energy revolution, the bio-energy revolution, and the digital revolution.
Ambani’s forecast is more bullish than that of Asia’s richest person Gautam Adani, who last week stated that India will become a $30 trillion economy by 2050, on the back of rising consumption and socio-economic reforms.
***
Basis of Ambani’s Prediction
Ambani’s prediction is based on several factors and assumptions that he believes will enable India to achieve a high and sustained economic growth in the next 25 years. Some of these are:
The demographic dividend: India has a large and young population, with a median age of 28 years, which is expected to provide a huge and productive workforce, as well as a massive and aspirational consumer market.
The entrepreneurial spirit: India has a vibrant and dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, which has produced many successful startups and unicorns, especially in the digital and technology sectors, and which has the potential to create more innovation and value addition.
The policy reforms: India has undertaken several policy reforms in the past few years, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), the farm laws, and the labour codes, which have aimed to improve the ease of doing business, attract more investment, and enhance the competitiveness and efficiency of the economy.
The game-changing revolutions: India is poised to benefit from the three game-changing revolutions that Ambani identified, namely the clean energy revolution, the bio-energy revolution, and the digital revolution, which will transform the energy, agriculture, and information sectors, and will create new opportunities and challenges for the economy.
***
Implications of Ambani’s Prediction
Ambani’s prediction has several implications for the Indian economy and society, as well as for the global order and the environment.
Some of these are:
The economic prosperity
If India achieves a $40 trillion economy by 2047, it will rank among the top three economies of the world, along with the US and China, and will have a per capita income of around $25,000, which is comparable to the current level of some of the developed countries. This will mean a significant improvement in the living standards and the well-being of the people, as well as a reduction in poverty and inequality.
The strategic influence
If India becomes a $40 trillion economy by 2047, it will also become a more influential and powerful actor in the international arena, and will have a greater say and stake in the global issues and institutions, such as the UN, the WTO, the IMF, and the World Bank. This will also mean a greater responsibility and accountability for India to uphold the rules-based international order and to contribute to the global peace and security.
The environmental sustainability
If India pursues a $40 trillion economy by 2047, it will also have to ensure that its growth is sustainable and green, and that it does not compromise the ecological balance and the climate stability of the planet. This will require India to adopt and implement clean and renewable energy sources, efficient and circular resource use, and low-carbon and resilient development models.
***
Comparison with Gautam Adani’s Projection
Ambani’s prediction is more optimistic than Adani’s projection, as it envisages a higher and faster growth rate for the Indian economy in the next 25 years. While Ambani expects India to grow 13-fold from $3 trillion to $40 trillion by 2047, Adani expects India to grow 10-fold from $3 trillion to $30 trillion by 2050.
The difference between the two estimates can be attributed to the different assumptions and scenarios that the two businessmen have considered for their projections. While Ambani has assumed a more favourable and conducive environment for India’s growth, such as a smooth and successful implementation of the policy reforms and the game-changing revolutions, Adani has assumed a more realistic and conservative scenario, taking into account the possible risks and uncertainties that India may face, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the geopolitical tensions, the social unrest, and the environmental challenges.
The difference between the two estimates can also be explained by the different perspectives and interests that the two businessmen have for their projections. While Ambani has expressed his vision and ambition for India’s growth, as he is involved in the sectors that are likely to benefit from the game-changing revolutions, such as energy, telecom, and digital, Adani has expressed his caution and prudence for India’s growth, as he is involved in the sectors that are likely to face more competition and regulation, such as infrastructure, mining, and ports.
You Learn
- Ambani’s prediction is based on several factors and assumptions that he believes will enable India to achieve a high and sustained economic growth in the next 25 years, such as the demographic dividend, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the policy reforms.
- Ambani’s prediction has several implications for the Indian economy and society, as well as for the global order and the environment, such as the economic prosperity, the strategic influence, and the environmental sustainability.
- Ambani’s prediction is more optimistic than Adani’s projection, as it envisages a higher and faster growth rate for the Indian economy in the next 25 years. The difference between the two estimates can be attributed to the different assumptions and scenarios that the two businessmen have considered for their projections, as well as the different perspectives and interests that they have for their projections.
(India CSR)
