India’s digital economy is projected to contribute nearly 20% of GDP by 2030, while quick commerce could reach INR 4,505-6,025 billion by FY 2030.
The Indian economy demonstrated strong resilience during FY 2025-26, reinforcing its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally despite geopolitical uncertainties and global economic moderation. India’s real GDP is estimated at 7.7% in FY 2025-26, according to the Second Advance Estimates, MoSPI, of gross domestic product (GDP) released by the government on February 27, 2026, based on the new and updated series, highlighting the strength of domestic demand and structural reforms in driving economic expansion.
Overall economic performance in FY 2025-26 was primarily due to robust real growth observed in Q2 (8.4%) and Q3 (7.8%). Growth momentum during the fiscal year was supported by strong domestic consumption demand, rising infrastructure investment and expanding services activity across sectors such as finance, digital services and logistics. Inflationary pressures moderated significantly during the year, supported by easing food prices, improved supply conditions and policy measures aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Average headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for FY 2025-26 declined to 1.7%, while recent MoSPI data indicated 3.4% CPI inflation in March 2026, reflecting a moderation in food prices and improved supply conditions. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its meeting held on April 8, 2026, projected CPI inflation at 4.6% for FY 2026-27.
In response to the easing inflationary environment, the RBI’s MPC cumulatively reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points during its meetings from April to December 2025. As of December 2025, the repo rate stood at 5.25%. In its latest MPC meeting on April 8, 2026, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged and maintained a neutral stance, reflecting the balancing act required amid evolving macroeconomic conditions, particularly geopolitical uncertainties and global supply chain disruptions.
| Indicator | FY 2025-26 / Latest Position | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 7.7% | 6.8-7.2% in FY 2026-27 |
| Q2 real GDP growth | 8.4% | — |
| Q3 real GDP growth | 7.8% | — |
| Average CPI inflation | 1.7% | 4.6% in FY 2026-27 |
| CPI inflation in March 2026 | 3.4% | — |
| Repo rate | 5.25% | Unchanged in April 2026 |
| Cumulative repo rate reduction | 100 basis points | April-December 2025 |
| PFCE growth | ~7% | — |
| PFCE share of GDP | 61.5% | Highest since 2012 |
Consumption-Led Growth
Household consumption remained a key driver of India’s economic growth during FY 2025-26, supported by easing inflation, relatively stable employment conditions and improving real incomes. In addition, tax reforms and rationalisation measures contributed to stronger urban consumption and an improved spending environment. This supported growth in Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), which increased by ~7% during FY 2025-26.
According to the Economic Survey 2025-26, PFCE accounted for nearly 61.5% of India’s GDP in FY 2025-26, its highest share since 2012, underlining the importance of domestic consumption in sustaining economic growth.
Economic Outlook
As India enters FY 2026-27, the global economic environment continues to face uncertainty arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, evolving trade restrictions and volatility in global commodity and energy markets. These developments have affected global supply chains, moderated investment sentiment and created uneven growth conditions across advanced and emerging economies.
Despite these external challenges, India’s macroeconomic outlook remains relatively stable, supported by resilient domestic demand, policy continuity and improving economic fundamentals. Following a year marked by structural policy measures and continued focus on economic formalisation, infrastructure development and manufacturing support, India enters FY 2026-27 with a relatively strong growth foundation.
A diversified consumption base, sustained government capital expenditure, resilient services activity and continued support towards the manufacturing ecosystem are expected to support economic growth in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% during FY 2026-27, as projected in the Economic Survey 2025-26.
| Indicator | Current Position | 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Digital economy’s contribution to GDP | About 13% | Nearly 20% |
| Internet users | 1.03 billion | — |
| Smartphones | 660 million | — |
| Daily UPI transactions | Nearly 640 million | — |
| ICT services and electronics manufacturing share of GVA | 7.83% | — |
| Digital platforms and intermediaries share of GVA | 2% | — |
| Digital adoption across BFSI, retail and education | 2% of GVA | — |
| Economy-wide digitalisation ranking | Third globally | — |
Industry Overview
India’s digital economy, currently contributing about 13% of GDP, is projected to account for nearly 20% of India’s GDP by 2030, growing at almost twice the pace of the broader economy. Supported by 1.03 billion internet users, 660 million smartphones, and a digital payments ecosystem processing nearly 640 million UPI transactions daily, India is now the third-largest digitalised country in the world in terms of economy-wide digitalisation, according to the State of India’s Digital Economy Report 2025.
Digitally enabled industries have expanded significantly, with Information and Communication Technology (ICT) services and the manufacturing of electronic components, computers and communication equipment contributing 7.83% of gross value added (GVA), while digital platforms and intermediaries contributed another 2% of GVA. In addition, digital adoption across sectors such as BFSI, retail and education added a further 2% to GVA, reflecting the increasing integration of digital technologies across the economy.
The digital economy’s share is projected to rise to nearly 20% of GVA by 2030.
India’s Retail Market
India’s retail market continued to expand steadily, driven by rising household consumption, increasing discretionary spending and deeper digital penetration across urban and emerging markets. The retail market grew from approximately INR 62 trillion (~USD 725 billion) in FY 2020 to around INR 83 trillion (~USD 978 billion) in FY 2025, registering a CAGR of nearly 6% during the period.
The market is projected to expand further to INR 123-135 trillion (~USD 1.4-1.6 trillion) by FY 2030, implying a CAGR of 8-10% between FY 2025 and FY 2030. Grocery remained the largest category within India’s retail market, accounting for nearly 61% of total retail consumption in FY 2025, and is projected to contribute around 59% by FY 2030, reflecting its essential and high-frequency consumption nature.
At the same time, non-grocery categories are expected to witness faster growth, supported by rising affluence, broader product accessibility and increasing digital adoption across city tiers.
Non-grocery segments are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9–11% between FY 2025 and FY 2030, increasing their share of the retail market from around 39% in FY 2025 to nearly 41% by FY 2030. Categories such as fashion, electronics, beauty and personal care are expected to benefit from rising consumer preference for variety, convenience, faster fulfilment and improved digital access, supporting the continued evolution of India’s hyperlocal and on-demand consumption ecosystem.
| Indicator | FY 2020 | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail market value | INR 62 trillion | INR 83 trillion | INR 123-135 trillion |
| Retail market value in USD | USD 725 billion | USD 978 billion | USD 1.4-1.6 trillion |
| Market growth | — | ~6% CAGR during FY 2020-25 | 8-10% CAGR during FY 2025-30 |
| Grocery share | — | 61% | Around 59% |
| Non-grocery share | — | 39% | Nearly 41% |
| Non-grocery growth | — | — | 9-11% CAGR |
Quick Commerce Market
Quick commerce has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments within India’s retail landscape, supported by rising consumer preference for convenience, faster fulfilment and high-frequency digital purchasing behaviour. The market expanded significantly from approximately INR 4 billion (~USD 0.05 billion), representing nearly 0.01% of total retail in FY 2020, to around INR 527 billion (~USD 6.2 billion) and approximately 0.63% of total retail in FY 2025.
The market is projected to scale further to INR 4,505-6,025 billion (~USD 53-71 billion) by FY 2030, accounting for nearly 4% of India’s retail market and implying a CAGR of 54-63% between FY 2025 and FY 2030.
The rapid expansion of quick commerce is being driven by increasing consumer preference for faster fulfilment, predictable availability and seamless access across grocery, household essentials and an expanding range of discretionary categories. As speed, convenience and fulfilment reliability become increasingly central to urban consumption behaviour, quick commerce is evolving from a niche, impulse-led grocery format into a high-frequency, multi-category retail channel. Improvements in assortment depth, delivery density, routing efficiency and inventory management are further strengthening operating efficiency and enabling scale across hyperlocal delivery networks.
| Indicator | FY 2020 | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market value | INR 4 billion | INR 527 billion | INR 4,505-6,025 billion |
| Market value in USD | USD 0.05 billion | USD 6.2 billion | USD 53-71 billion |
| Share of total retail | 0.01% | 0.63% | Nearly 4% |
| Share of online retail | 0.23% | 8.86% | 30-33% |
| Projected CAGR | — | — | 54-63% during FY 2025-30 |
| Non-grocery share of GMV | — | 23% | 36-40% |
| Advertising revenue contribution | — | 4-5% of GMV for certain platforms | — |
| Return on Advertising Spend | — | 5-8x in certain use cases | — |
Online Retail Penetration
Within India’s online retail ecosystem, quick commerce has witnessed a sharp increase in market penetration, with its share rising from approximately 0.23% in FY 2020 to around 8.86% in FY 2025. The segment is projected to contribute nearly 30-33% of India’s online retail market by FY 2030.
This increasing penetration is supported by higher order frequency, rising consumer comfort with on-demand delivery models and continued expansion of assortments beyond grocery into categories such as beauty and personal care, home and kitchen products, small electronics and general merchandise.
Improvements in delivery density, assortment management and service consistency continue to support faster growth relative to broader e-commerce and modern trade channels. The pace of quick commerce adoption continues to vary across retail categories. Grocery, while remaining India’s largest retail category at approximately INR 51 trillion (~USD 598 billion) in FY 2025, continues to exhibit relatively low online and organised penetration.
The category is projected to expand to approximately INR 73-81 trillion (~USD 855-948 billion) by FY 2030, with online penetration expected to increase to 6-7%, indicating significant headroom for digital adoption.
In contrast, discretionary categories such as beauty and personal care, electronics and fashion show higher levels of formalisation and deeper online adoption, enabling a faster transition to on-demand fulfilment. As online penetration rises further across these categories, quick commerce is positioned to capture a growing share of category-level retail, with penetration expected to deepen across both essential and discretionary categories.
| User Indicator | FY 2020 | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Transacting Users | 50-60 million | 90-105 million | 145-170 million |
| Monthly Transacting Users | 12-18 million | 25-35 million | 44-65 million |
Growth Drivers of Quick Commerce in India
Habit-Led Consumption Behaviour
India’s consumption landscape is characterised by frequent, smaller-ticket purchases across grocery, fresh produce and household essentials. Quick commerce aligns closely with these consumption patterns by enabling rapid fulfilment and reliable access for immediate-use requirements. As delivery consistency and service reliability improve, consumers are increasingly integrating quick commerce into routine purchasing behaviour rather than using it only for urgent or impulse-led needs.
This behavioural shift is contributing to higher order frequency, improving basket sizes and rising Average Order Values (AOVs) across platforms.
Expansion Across Cities
The continued expansion of dark-store infrastructure across metro along with deeper penetration into Tier 1 and Tier 2+ cities, is improving reach, delivery speed and service consistency for quick commerce channels. While metro markets continue to benefit from higher order density and mature consumer adoption, Tier 1 and Tier 2+ cities are witnessing faster growth driven by rising disposable incomes, increasing digital familiarity and greater adoption of app-based commerce models.
Quick commerce is well-positioned to scale in these markets, with the quick commerce market in Tier 1 and Tier 2+ cities projected to grow at a CAGR of 76-88% between FY 2025 and FY 2030, compared with 48-57% times in Metros.
| User Indicator | FY 2020 | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Transacting Users | 50-60 million | 90-105 million | 145-170 million |
| Monthly Transacting Users | 12-18 million | 25-35 million | 44-65 million |
Hyperlocal Operating Model
Quick commerce operates on a hyperlocal fulfilment architecture, where delivery performance and operating efficiency are driven by city-level and micro-market optimisation. Increasing dark-store density, calibrated assortment planning and routing efficiencies are improving fulfilment reliability and supporting better asset utilisation.
Platforms are also optimising product mix towards higher-margin and higher-AOV categories, supporting gradual improvement in contribution margins as networks scale. The operating model continues to evolve between inventory-led and marketplace-led structures, balancing assortment control, service consistency and working capital intensity.
Non-Grocery Contribution
Quick commerce is steadily expanding beyond grocery into discretionary categories such as beauty and personal care, electronics, fashion, home and kitchen products and general merchandise. Adoption across non-grocery categories is projected to grow 1.4-1.6x faster between FY 2025 and FY 2030, supported by rising consumer preference for convenience-led purchases and faster fulfilment across everyday discretionary needs.
This shift is reflected in the increasing contribution of non-grocery categories to quick commerce Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), with their share projected to increase from approximately 23% in FY 2025 to 36-40% by FY 2030.
| Market | FY 2025 Value | FY 2030 Projection | Projected CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| India retail | INR 83 trillion | INR 123-135 trillion | 8-10% |
| Quick commerce | INR 527 billion | INR 4,505-6,025 billion | 54-63% |
| Grocery retail | INR 51 trillion | INR 73-81 trillion | — |
| Food services | INR 7 trillion | INR 11-12 trillion | 11-12% |
| Online food delivery | INR 0.8 trillion | INR 1.7-2.2 trillion | 17-23% |
Advertising and Discovery
Quick commerce platforms are increasingly evolving into high-intent discovery and advertising channels for consumer brands. With users engaging across multiple purchase occasions and categories, these platforms provide brands with contextual visibility close to the point of transaction.
Online retail platforms accounted for approximately 18% of India’s digital advertising market in FY 2025. Advertising monetisation within quick commerce is also gaining scale, with advertising revenues already contributing around 4-5% of GMV for certain platforms during FY 2025. Improvements in targeting capabilities using location, purchase behaviour and category affinity are enabling stronger campaign effectiveness, with Return on Advertising Spend (RoAS) reaching nearly 5-8x in certain use cases.
| Indicator | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Grocery market value | INR 51 trillion | INR 73-81 trillion |
| Grocery market value in USD | USD 598 billion | USD 855-948 billion |
| Online penetration | Relatively low | 6-7% |
| Position in retail market | Largest retail category | Expected to remain the largest |
| Digital opportunity | Significant headroom | Deeper online and quick commerce adoption |
Indian Food Service Market
India’s food services market accounted for approximately 13% of India’s total food consumption market in FY 2025, compared with nearly 11% in FY 2020, and is projected to increase to 15–16% by FY 2030. The market continues to expand steadily, supported by increasing out-of-home consumption, rising participation of organised formats and wider digital adoption across ordering-in and dining-out occasions.
In value terms, the market grew from approximately INR 4 trillion (~USD 52 billion) in FY 2020 to nearly INR 7 trillion (~USD 79 billion) in FY 2025 and is projected to reach INR 11-12 trillion (~USD 135-140 billion) by FY 2030, implying a CAGR of 11-12% between FY 2025 and FY 2030.
Growth is being supported by changing urban lifestyles, rising disposable incomes, smaller household structures and increasing consumer preference for convenience-led food consumption. Greater adoption of digital ordering platforms and delivery-led formats is also contributing to higher ordering frequency and continued market formalisation.
| Indicator | FY 2020 | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market value | INR 4 trillion | INR 7 trillion | INR 11-12 trillion |
| Market value in USD | USD 52 billion | USD 79 billion | USD 135-140 billion |
| Share of total food consumption | 11% | 13% | 15-16% |
| Projected CAGR | — | — | 11-12% during FY 2025-30 |
Online Food Delivery Market
India’s online food delivery market has evolved from an occasional-use category into an increasingly mainstream consumption channel, supported by rising digital adoption, higher ordering frequency and expanding restaurant participation across delivery platforms. Online food delivery accounted for approximately 12% of India’s food services market in FY 2025, compared with nearly 6% in FY 2020, and is projected to increase to 15-19% by FY 2030.
In value terms, the market expanded from approximately INR 0.27 trillion (~USD 3 billion) in FY 2020 to nearly INR 0.8 trillion (~USD 9 billion) in FY 2025 and is projected to reach INR 1.7-2.2 trillion (~USD 20–26 billion) by FY 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 17-23% between FY 2025 and FY 2030. Growth is being supported by deeper penetration across metro, Tier 1 and Tier 2+ cities, improving delivery speed, wider restaurant selection and increasing consumer preference for convenience-led food consumption.
| Category | Current Position | Growth Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Grocery | Largest and most frequently purchased category | Continued expansion through routine purchases |
| Beauty and personal care | Growing online adoption | Faster transition to on-demand fulfilment |
| Electronics | Higher formalisation and digital adoption | Increasing quick commerce penetration |
| Fashion | Strong discretionary demand | Supported by convenience and wider selection |
| Home and kitchen | Expanding assortment | Higher contribution to non-grocery GMV |
| General merchandise | Emerging quick commerce category | Supported by faster fulfilment |
| Overall non-grocery segment | 23% of GMV in FY 2025 | 36-40% of GMV by FY 2030 |
Growth Drivers for India’s Online Food Delivery Market
Rising Ordering Frequency
India’s online food delivery market is witnessing higher user engagement as food delivery increasingly becomes part of routine consumption behaviour. Annual Transacting Users (ATUs) increased from 50-60 million in FY 2020 to 90-105 million in FY 2025 and are projected to reach 145-170 million by FY 2030. Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) increased from 12-18 million in FY 2020 to 25-35 million in FY 2025 and are expected to increase further to 44-65 million by FY 2030, reflecting stronger platform engagement and improving ordering frequency.
Convenience-Led Consumption
| Growth Driver | Market Impact |
|---|---|
| Habit-led consumption | Increases ordering frequency, basket size and Average Order Value |
| Expansion across cities | Improves reach, delivery speed and service consistency |
| Dark-store density | Strengthens fulfilment reliability and asset utilisation |
| Hyperlocal optimisation | Supports efficient routing and micro-market management |
| Non-grocery expansion | Diversifies revenue and improves category margins |
| Advertising monetisation | Creates high-intent brand discovery near transactions |
| Inventory management | Improves product availability and operating efficiency |
| Technology adoption | Strengthens targeting, personalisation and logistics |
Increasing preference for convenience, speed and wider food choices is supporting growth in online food delivery across urban markets. Demand is also expanding beyond indulgence-led occasions towards routine meal consumption, supported by greater availability of value offerings, specialised cuisines and healthier food options.
Delivery Speed and Reliability
Platforms continue to improve fulfilment efficiency through denser delivery networks, enhanced rider allocation and technology-led route optimisation. Faster delivery timelines and higher service reliability are contributing to improved customer retention and repeat ordering behaviour.
Expanding Consumption Occasions
Online food delivery platforms are increasingly catering to multiple consumption occasions, including meals, snacks, breakfast and single-serve requirements. Wider menu assortment, combo offerings and value packs are supporting higher order frequency and expanding the addressable consumer base.
| Indicator | FY 2020 | FY 2025 | FY 2030 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market value | INR 0.27 trillion | INR 0.8 trillion | INR 1.7-2.2 trillion |
| Market value in USD | USD 3 billion | USD 9 billion | USD 20-26 billion |
| Share of food services market | 6% | 12% | 15-19% |
| Projected CAGR | — | — | 17-23% during FY 2025-30 |
Technology-Led Personalisation
Improved app interfaces, personalised recommendations and loyalty programmes are strengthening customer engagement across platforms. Technology-led menu discovery, restaurant recommendations and logistics optimisation are also improving user experience and supporting higher repeat consumption.
Source: Swiggy Limited Annual Report 2025-26
