According to BNEF data, global electric car sales rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to 30.2 million in 2027.
NEW DELHI (India CSR) – BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) shows that EV adoption is still growing, despite the mixed near-term outlook in some markets. The new report indicates that rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-generation battery technology and improving relative economics of electric vehicles with internal-combustion engine counterparts continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally.
However, the report indicates that the window to reach global net-zero transport ambitions is now narrower than ever and the world to achieve a zero-emission vehicle fleet by 2050, sales of combustion vehicles would need to stop around 2038.
The report presents two updated road transport scenarios: the base case Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) – in which EV adoption is shaped by current techno-economic trends and with no new policy intervention – and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS)consistent with reaching a global zero-emission fleet by 2050.
In the base case ETS, passenger electric vehicle [1] (or electric car) sales continue to rise globally, even though growth has slowed in the US and Europe as a result of regulatory and political changes, and some automakers pushing back their EV targets. In the US, a lack of lower-cost models and EV market jitters have slowed adoption this year, while block-wide fuel-economy targets in Europe do not become more stringent until 2025, releasing automakers active in the region from the pressure to substantially increase sales of electric cars.
The report also shows that passenger electric vehicles are no longer only a wealthy country phenomenon, with the likes of Thailand, India and Brazil all experiencing record sales as more low-cost electric cars are launched targeting local buyers.
Here’s the table of key facts:
| Year | Scenario | Key Fact |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | EV Sales Projection | EV sales to rise 199% and reach 284,400 due to rising consumer interest and more model launches |
| 2030 | ETS Projection | EV sales to rise sharply after 2030, surpassing 5.9 million by 2040 from 96,000 in 2023 |
| 2033 | NZS Projection | Fleet of internal combustion engine cars to peak at 64.5 million vehicles |
| 2033 | ZEV Projection | Number of electric cars on the road to rise sharply, aiming for a 100% zero-emission fleet by 2050 |
| 2038 | ZEV Sales Target | Sale of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) should hit 100% to reach a net-zero passenger vehicle fleet |
| 2040 | NZS vs ETS Projection | ZEV fleet size to rise to over 56.3 million under NZS compared with 31.4 million under ETS |
| 2050 | NZS vs ETS Projection | ZEV fleet size to increase to over 133.5 million under NZS, nearly 1.5 times the EV fleet in the ETS |
According to BNEF data, global electric car sales rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to 30.2 million in 2027. In the next four years, passenger electric vehicle sales grow at an average of 21% per year, compared to the average of 61% between 2020 and 2023. The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, from 17.8% in 2023. China, the US and Europe account for 89% of global passenger EV sales in 2027.
Improving economics of electric vehicles underpin the continued long-term growth in EV adoption. EVs reach 45% of global passenger-vehicle sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040 in the ETS. Despite great progress and a steep growth trajectory, Southeast Asia, India and Brazil are still below the global average adoption by then.
| Global long-term EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by market in BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario |
| Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Europe includes the EU, the UK and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries. Electric vehicles include battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs. Passenger vehicles include sports utility vehicles and multi-purpose vehicles. |
In India, rising consumer interest and more model launches help EV sales rise 199% and reach 284,400 by 2027according to BNEF’s ETS.The underlying technology for electrification continues improve, battery prices fall, and EV adoption moves from being policy-driven to being propelled by consumer demand. India’s EV sales rise sharply after 2030, surpassing 5.9million by 2040under the ETS, from 96,000 in 2023.
To reach a net-zero passenger vehicle fleet, India’s sale of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) should hit 100% by 2038. This will need significant acceleration compared to the EV adoption rates observed in the ETS, where ZEV adoption doesn’t reach a 100% share even by 2050.
| Source:BloombergNEF. Note: Passenger vehicles include sports utility vehicles and multi-purpose vehicles. | |
Under the NZS, India’s fleet of internal combustion enginecars hits its highestlevel in 2033 at about 64.5 million vehicles. This is three years before the peak in the ETS. The number of electric cars on the road should rise sharply thereafter to reach a 100% zero-emission fleet by 2050. The size of the ZEV fleet rises to over 56.3 million in 2040 under NZS compared with 31.4 million under ETS. By 2050, this increases to over 133.5 million under the NZS, which is nearly 1.5 times the EV fleet in the ETS in 2050.
[1] Passenger vehicles include sports utility vehicles and multi-purpose vehicles. Cars and passenger vehicles are used interchangeably.
(India CSR)
