This article will explore three distinct measures of conflict, fragility, and peace in 2024: the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), the World Bank’s Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations list, and the Global Peace Index (GPI).
By India CSR Research
In 2024, the interplay between conflict, fragility, and multidimensional poverty has been more profound than ever before. Understanding how different contexts of conflict and fragility impact people’s lives and their ability to escape poverty is crucial. This year’s Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report offers a comprehensive view of how multidimensional poverty and conflict are intertwined, making poverty alleviation in conflict zones a challenging and slow endeavor.
Each of these measures provides a unique perspective on the scope of conflict and its impact on poverty. The analysis presented here is based on data from the Global MPI 2024 report, with an emphasis on how these measures help to understand the complex dynamics between conflict and poverty.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is one of the primary sources used to measure conflicts globally. It categorizes countries into those experiencing war and those experiencing minor conflicts based on the number of conflict-related deaths observed annually. According to the UCDP, countries are classified as “war-affected” if they experience at least 1,000 conflict-related deaths in a year, while “minor conflict” countries experience fewer than 1,000 deaths annually.
In 2024, the number of people living in war-affected countries stood at 218 million, representing about 19% of the 1.1 billion poor people globally. War-affected countries face an incidence of poverty that is three times higher than countries with no significant conflict. In war-affected nations, approximately 34.8% of people live in multidimensional poverty compared to 10.9% in more peaceful nations.
The UCDP also reveals that the intensity of poverty in these areas is greater across all indicators, including nutrition, electricity, water, and sanitation. For instance, in war-affected countries, 26.9% of the population lacks access to electricity, compared to only 5.6% in countries not affected by conflict. Moreover, the average deprivation experienced by poor people in these war-affected areas tends to be higher in all the ten MPI indicators compared to those living in peaceful areas.
The World Bank Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) List
The World Bank’s Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) list categorizes countries experiencing institutional fragility as well as those directly affected by violent conflict. In 2024, nearly 335 million poor people lived in fragile and conflict-affected countries, representing around 30% of the total global poor population. The incidence of multidimensional poverty in these countries stood at a staggering 45.1%, significantly higher than the 14.7% recorded in non-fragile countries.
The FCS list emphasizes that institutional fragility and political instability play a significant role in exacerbating poverty. Countries classified as fragile tend to have high levels of economic inequality and limited access to basic services such as healthcare and education. The FCS list shows that fragility and poverty are intricately linked, and addressing one without addressing the other will make poverty eradication efforts futile.
The Global Peace Index (GPI)
The Global Peace Index (GPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, provides another distinct measure of conflict, fragility, and peace. The GPI ranks 163 independent states based on 23 indicators covering three domains: ongoing conflict, safety and security, and militarization. The GPI categorizes countries into very low, low, medium, high, and very high levels of peacefulness.
In 2024, the report found that around 375 million poor people lived in countries classified as either low or very low peace contexts. These countries had an average multidimensional poverty incidence rate of 34.1%, compared to 15.1% in countries with medium or higher levels of peace.
The GPI highlights that countries experiencing low levels of peace tend to have higher deprivation levels in health, education, and living standards indicators. For instance, in countries classified as having low peace, about 7.2% of the population is deprived of adequate nutrition, while in very high-peace countries, this figure drops significantly.
Impact of Conflict, Fragility, and Peace on Poverty
The connection between conflict and poverty is clear: conflict-affected countries are more deprived in all MPI indicators, and poverty reduction is slower in conflict settings. Violent conflicts lead to a disruption of institutions, the destruction of infrastructure, and limited access to essential services. This makes it difficult for people to break free from poverty.
The UCDP, FCS, and GPI measures reveal that poverty in conflict-affected areas is not only higher but also more complex. These countries often experience multiple deprivations simultaneously, which makes overcoming poverty particularly challenging. Deprivations in nutrition, child mortality, school attendance, and access to electricity are some of the most common challenges in these settings.
Read more: Poverty amid Conflict
Table: Key Facts on Conflict and Poverty in 2024
| Measure | Number of Poor People Affected | Incidence of Poverty (%) | Key Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCDP (War-Affected) | 218 million | 34.8% | High deprivation in electricity, water, and nutrition |
| FCS List (Fragile Countries) | 335 million | 45.1% | Institutional fragility and high inequality |
| GPI (Low Peace Countries) | 375 million | 34.1% | Deprivation in health, education, and living standards |
Poverty in Conflict Areas: A Closer Look
The 2024 MPI report also provides in-depth analyses of specific conflict-affected countries to illustrate how conflict impacts poverty. Afghanistan is a case in point. From 2015/2016 to 2022/2023, the incidence of poverty in Afghanistan rose by over five percentage points. By 2023, nearly two-thirds of Afghans were living in poverty, and children accounted for 58.9% of the poor population.
In conflict-affected settings, poverty is more likely to persist, as evidenced by the slower rate of poverty reduction in these areas. For instance, the weighted average annual reduction in MPI value in war-affected countries is 0.008, compared to 0.012 in minor conflict countries. The data suggest that war-affected countries need a faster rate of poverty reduction to make significant progress.
Moving Forward: Addressing Poverty in Conflict-Affected Areas
The findings from the 2024 MPI report underscore the importance of addressing conflict and fragility if the world is to make significant progress towards poverty eradication. Addressing the root causes of conflict, promoting peace, and building resilient institutions are critical steps towards reducing poverty in fragile and conflict-affected areas.
It is essential to create targeted interventions to help the poor living in conflict zones. Humanitarian aid must go hand-in-hand with development aid to rebuild infrastructure and ensure access to basic services like healthcare, education, and clean water. At the same time, conflict prevention efforts are needed to prevent the outbreak of new conflicts and to build a stable foundation for long-term development.
International cooperation and political will are key to addressing the challenges posed by conflict and poverty. Organizations such as the United Nations, World Bank, and regional bodies must work together to support conflict-affected countries in their efforts to rebuild and provide essential services to their populations.
You Learn
The 2024 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index report provides a sobering look at the state of poverty in conflict-affected settings. By using three distinct measures of conflict, fragility, and peace—the UCDP, FCS, and GPI—the report paints a detailed picture of how multidimensional poverty is exacerbated by conflict and how difficult it is for people living in these areas to escape poverty.
Conflict and fragility not only drive poverty but also slow down the pace of poverty reduction. This means that addressing poverty in conflict settings requires addressing the underlying causes of conflict and fragility. The international community must come together to support these countries in their journey toward peace and stability, ensuring that no one is left behind.
Poverty eradication in conflict zones is a challenging task, but it is not impossible. With targeted interventions, resilient institutions, and a commitment to peace, it is possible to make progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and lifting millions of people out of poverty.
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