Mumbai: Mumbai Climate Action Plan (MCAP), released by chief minister Uddhav Thackeray on Sunday, concluded that Mumbai’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to reach 64.8 million tonnes CO2e/year by 2050, increasing 2.7 times between 2019 and 2050, in a business as usual (BAU) scenario, meaning if no mitigation interventions are undertaken.
The projection is slightly higher than the Indian level BAU trajectory, which estimates the surge at 2.5 times. In 2019, Mumbai’s GHG emissions were 23.42 million tonnes CO2e, at 1.8 times CO2e per person.
In another scenario – the Existing and Planned (E&P) scenario – which takes into consideration the present policies to reduce emissions, at the city, regional and national level, emissions are expected to reach 51.3 million tons CO2e/year by 2050. This is an increase of 119.4 percent in comparison to base year (2019) emissions, and are not aligned with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement and deadline 2020 emission trajectories.
To address this, MCAP lists an aggressive mitigation strategy, a third scenario. These emission reduction targets aim to reach net-zero by 2050. Net-zero means being able to balance out the amount of GHGs emitted through sequestration (absorption by forests, mangroves, and tree cover).
The MCAP aims 30 percent emissions reduction by 2030, and 44 percent by 2040, against the base year through ‘ambitious yet achievable’ measures.
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