The Dun & Bradstreet Composite CFO Optimism Index, which has been tracking the changing sentiment of CFOs since 2012, is a leading indicator of the Indian financial market as it helps in predicting the performance of Sensex three months in advance.
Mumbai (India CSR): The Dun & Bradstreet Composite Business Optimism Index stands at 69.9 for Q3 2022, a fall of 27.6% compared to Q2 2022. Five out of six optimism indices have registered a decline compared to Q2 2022. The Dun & Bradstreet Composite Business Optimism Index, which has been measuring the changing business sentiment of India Inc. since 2002, is a leading indicator for India’s overall growth, with a correlation co-efficient of around 80% with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Challenges to businesses are intensifying. At the time when businesses face margin pressure both from rising input and borrowing costs.
The index decreased by 27.6% (q-o-q) in Q3 2022 and on a y-o-y basis is down 5.9%.
Highlights
- Optimism for selling price stands at 37%, lowest since Q2 2021
- Optimism for net profits stands at 34%, lowest in nine quarters
- Optimism for volume of sales stands at 69%, lowest in four quarters
- Optimism for new orders stands at 40%, lowest since Q3 2020
- Optimism for size of the workforce is three percentage points lower than Q2 2022 but second highest since Q3 2011
- The intermediate goods sector is the most optimistic on net profit and increasing workforce size
Dun & Bradstreet’s Composite Business Optimism Index: Q3 2003 – Q3 2022
Note: BOI Index is for new base (2011)
Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet said, “Due to the strong headwinds that India Inc. faces from slowing global growth, monetary policy spillovers, high inflationary pressures, a depreciating rupee and the rise in interest rates, the optimism level of businesses deteriorated to a seven-quarter low in Q3 2022. Challenges to businesses are intensifying. At the time when businesses face margin pressure both from rising input and borrowing costs, the imposition of taxes on goods and services, especially on export goods, is likely to impact corporate earnings and might have added to the weak sentiment. Our survey shows that optimism level of businesses for net profits and new orders, which indicate demand for goods and services, is at its lowest in eight quarters. We expect business sentiment to remain bearish as demand turns tepid and risks remain elevated.”
Key findings from the Q3 2022 survey
Around 69% of the respondents expect volume of sales to increase in Q3 2022 compared to 76% in Q2 2022.
While 22% expect it to remain unchanged, 9% expect the volume of sales to decline.
34% of the respondents expect an increase in net profits in Q3 2022, compared to 65% in Q2 2022.
While 50% expect net profits to remain unchanged, 16% expect them to decrease.
48% of the respondents expect no change in the selling price of their products in Q3 2022.
37% of the respondents expect the selling price of their products to increase during Q3 2022, while 14% expect a decline.
40% of the respondents expect their order book position to improve in Q3 2022, compared to 72% in Q2 2022.
While 50% of the respondents expect new orders to remain unchanged, only 10% anticipate new orders to decrease.
45% of the respondents expect their inventory level to increase during Q3 2022, compared to 41% in Q2 2022.
While 46% anticipate no change in inventory level, 10% expect inventory level to decline.
53% of the respondents expect an increase in the size of their workforce employed during Q3 2022, compared to 56% in Q2 2022.
While 41% anticipate no change in the number of employees, 6% expect their workforce size to decline.
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